Due to the high number of flight suspensions, predicting future flights is difficult and requires case-by-case analysis.
Here's a table summarizing imported COVID cases on US-China direct flights since December 2021 for clarity. On the right side, a simple calendar: black lines indicate officially announced cancellations/suspensions, gray lines are our estimates based on case numbers, red marks flights that triggered circuit breakers, and italic underlined are yet to be officially announced.
Some information is from @piaodi. Only US→China flights. Please verify and correct any errors.
Calendar screenshot here: US-China Cancellations/Suspensions - #993 by bamboo
For return flights, see this post: Will outbound and inbound flights be suspended together? 111
Notes:
- Original circuit breaker policy from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC): http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TZTG/202104/t20210429_207386.html 206
- Counting principle: Confirmed passenger cases refer to the sum of confirmed COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic cases among inbound passengers on the flight, as reported by the National Health Commission on the day of arrival and the following 7 consecutive days.
- Basic circuit breaker algorithm: The week of arrival counts as Week 1.
- 5-9 cases: small suspension, flights suspended for 2 weeks starting from Week 4.
- 10-29 cases: large suspension, flights suspended for 4 weeks starting from Week 4.
- 30+ cases: extra-large suspension, flights suspended immediately for 4 weeks.
- If a flight triggers a large suspension (10+ cases) for two consecutive weeks, the suspension is extended to 8 weeks immediately (e.g., CA988 this time).
- Other combinations (e.g., one small and one large in consecutive weeks) result in cumulative weeks starting from Week 4.
- Currently, no US-China airline has chosen the option to limit passenger load to 40%.
- Based on past experience, CAAC usually announces suspensions two weeks after arrival. Check: CAAC News 91. Additionally, Shanghai press conferences release suspension info for flights arriving in Shanghai slightly earlier. Summary in this post: US-China Cancellations/Suspensions - #1275 by bamboo
- The weekly rotating random cancellation order is currently CZ328-MF830-MU588-CA770, but not guaranteed; specific flights depend on official announcements.
- For Chinese airlines, there is a question: Are "regular" random cancellations counted as part of the circuit breaker suspension? Discussion here: US-China Cancellations/Suspensions - #1113 by bamboo
- This post contains the author's personal estimates of suspension end dates. These are subjective and should be used with caution: US-China Cancellations/Suspensions - #882 by bamboo
- [Pending official announcement] All estimates are subject to final CAAC announcement.
Air China CA770 (Tuesday):
- "Regular" random cancellation/suspension deferral: Jan 4, Feb 22 (CA770 only, every 4 weeks)
- Officially announced suspension: Jan 11, Jan 18 (Dec 21 Tuesday, 5 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Jan 25, Feb 1, Feb 8, Feb 15 (Dec 28 Tuesday, 15 cases, cumulative with Dec 21)
Air China CA988 (Sunday):
- Officially announced suspension: Jan 9, Jan 16, Jan 23, Jan 30, Feb 6, Feb 13, Feb 20, Feb 27 (Dec 26 Sunday 15 cases, Jan 2 Sunday 11 cases, triggered immediate suspension + cumulative 8 weeks)
China Southern CZ328 (Friday, Sunday):
- "Regular" random cancellation/suspension deferral: Jan 9 Sunday
- Officially announced suspension: Sunday flights Jan 16, Jan 23 (Dec 19 Sunday, 5 cases) (Jan 23 is deferral)
- Officially announced suspension: Sunday flights Jan 30, Feb 6, Feb 13, Feb 20, Feb 27, Mar 6, Mar 13, Mar 20 (Dec 26 Sunday 16 cases, Jan 2 Sunday 14 cases, cumulative 8 weeks, also cumulative with Dec 19)
- Officially announced suspension: Friday flights Jan 21, Jan 28 (Dec 31 Friday, 9 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Friday flights Feb 4, Feb 11, Feb 18, Feb 25 (Jan 7 Friday, 10 cases, cumulative with Dec 31)
Xiamen Airlines MF830 (Wednesday, Sunday):
- "Regular" random cancellation/suspension deferral: Jan 19 Wednesday, Mar 2 Wednesday
- Officially announced suspension: Sunday flights Jan 2, Jan 9 (Dec 12 Sunday, 5 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Wednesday flights Jan 12, Jan 26 (Dec 22 Wednesday, 5 cases) (Jan 26 is deferral)
- Officially announced suspension: Sunday flights Jan 16, Jan 23 (Dec 26 Sunday, 7 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Wednesday flights Feb 2, Feb 9, Feb 16, Feb 23 (Dec 29 Wednesday, 12 cases, cumulative with Dec 22)
China Eastern MU588 (Monday, Wednesday):
- "Regular" random cancellation/suspension deferral: Jan 24 Monday, Feb 21 Monday
- Officially announced suspension: Monday flights Jan 3, Jan 10 (Dec 13 Monday, 5 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Monday flights Jan 17, Jan 31 (Dec 20 Monday, 9 cases, cumulative with Dec 13) (Jan 31 is deferral)
- Officially announced suspension: Wednesday flights Jan 19, Jan 26 (Dec 29 Wednesday, 8 cases)
American Airlines AA127 (Monday, Thursday):
- Officially announced suspension: Thursday flights Jan 13, Jan 20 (Dec 23 Thursday, 5 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Thursday flights Jan 27, Feb 3, Feb 10, Feb 17 (Dec 30 Thursday, 10 cases, cumulative with Dec 23)
- Officially announced suspension: Monday flights Jan 24, Jan 31 (Jan 3 Monday, 7 cases)
- [Pending official announcement]: Jan 6 Thursday reported 5 cases, cumulative suspension, affecting Feb 24, Mar 3
Delta DL283 (Monday, Friday):
- Officially announced suspension: Friday flights Jan 7, Jan 14 (Dec 17 Friday, 7 cases, flight delayed to Dec 18 departure, Dec 20 arrival)
- Officially announced suspension: Friday flights Jan 21, Jan 28 (Dec 31 Friday, 5 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Monday flights Jan 24, Jan 31 (Jan 3 Monday, 9 cases)
Delta DL287 (Tuesday, Thursday):
- Officially announced suspension: Thursday flights Jan 20, Jan 27 (Dec 30 Thursday, 6 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Tuesday flights Jan 25, Feb 1, Feb 8, Feb 15 (Jan 4 Tuesday, 11 cases)
United Airlines UA857 (Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday):
- Officially announced suspension: Saturday flights Jan 15, Jan 22 (Dec 25 Saturday, 7 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Wednesday flights Jan 19, Jan 26 (Dec 29 Wednesday, 6 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Friday flights Jan 21, Jan 28 (Dec 31 Friday, 6 cases)
- Officially announced suspension: Sunday flights Jan 23, Jan 30 (Jan 2 Sunday, 7 cases)
- [Pending official announcement]: Jan 8 Saturday at least 5 cases, at least affecting Jan 29, Feb 5
[Other pending official announcements]
- Flights arriving Thursday Jan 6: Jan 4 Tuesday DL287, Jan 5 Wednesday MU588, Jan 5 Wednesday UA857. Current numbers: 2, 9, 3+3, 1+1+1, 1, 1. CAAC issued a suspension order on Jan 10 for DL287 on Jan 4 with 11 cases. Since the order was issued before the 7-day window closed, subsequent numbers are unknown. Suspension possibility for the other two flights is uncertain.
- Flights arriving Saturday Jan 8: Jan 6 Thursday DL287 and Jan 7 Friday UA857. At least one triggers suspension. Current numbers: 4, 4, 4, 1, 1.
Comments